By Brian Hefty

With this year’s drought, we will have a 3rd consecutive year of “below trend-line yields” in corn.  There has been a lot of talk about how we’re going to double U.S. Corn Yields by 2030.  Unfortunately, many people are counting on better genetics to do all the work and that, in my opinion, simply will not happen.  I believe we can double yields by 2030, but over 50% of the work, in my opinion, will need to come from the farmer, not from the genetics.  For example, let me ask you these 3 questions:

  1. Are you currently fertilizing with non-mobile nutrients (P, K, zinc, etc.) for double your current yield?  Without adequate plant food, there is no way to ever substantially increase yield.
  2. Are you currently controlling ALL the diseases, insects, and weeds in your fields in a “timely” fashion?  That means scouting fields on an almost daily basis, stopping most weeds before they are 1” tall, spraying before you see visual evidence of disease, and controlling insects at very low thresholds.
  3. When you are planting, are you constantly getting out of the tractor checking planting depth and accuracy and making sure your planter is perfectly adjusted so nearly every plant can emerge within 1 day of each other?

I’m not writing this article to give you a hard time or to tell you that we do everything perfect either.  I’m simply putting this information out there to hopefully motivate you (and me) to push harder for high yields.  Here’s why.  Look at the following chart on yield.

A lot of people have compared the drought this year to the one in 1988.  Did you know that 1988’s U.S. corn yield was 29.4% lower than 1987’s corn yield?  If the U.S. corn yield in 2012 is even half that much lower (14.7%) vs. last year’s, that means the U.S. average corn yield this year will be just 125.6 bushels per acre.

Anyway, if we average 130 bushels this year, that means we’ll have a 3-year average to start this decade of just 143.3 bushels.  As you can see in the chart, we need to average 173.8 from 2010 to 2019 just to maintain an 18% yield growth per decade.  If we are going to get to a U.S. average corn yield of 300 by 2030, we probably need to average 200 bushels per acre this decade.  I’d say there’s almost no chance we get there when I look at the stats.  In fact, even to average 173.8 we’re going to have to have several years over 180 real soon.

Don’t get discouraged by these numbers.  National numbers should mean nothing to you.  The only thing that should matter is how your yield is on your farm.  If you want higher yields, it is absolutely possible.  Look at Herman Warsaw who raised over 300 bushel per acre corn consistently in the 1970’s.  Look at Francis Childs who several times raised over 400 bushel corn in the last decade.  Look at David Hula who spoke at our Field Day this year.  He has raised over 400 bushel corn.  We absolutely have the hybrids that can do it.  We have the technology.  Now it’s up to you (and me) to get the know-how, put in the effort, and make the commitment.  I know you can do it!